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Ford: 2013 Escape Will Rule the Boomers, Compact Pickups are Dead, No to Diesel

Ford sales analyst Erich Merkle shows MSN Autos where the money is.

By Clifford Atiyeh Apr 19, 2012 4:24AM
2013 Ford Escape (c) FordAfter pulling out of your driveway, count the number of SUVs and crossovers on the road in just the first minute (heck, you're probably driving one). Assuming you're not in the middle of nowhere Maine, you'll likely pass a dozen of them before you find the right radio station.

Nearly every automaker has a compact SUV in the stable, some kind of lifted, hatchback bubble with a four-cylinder engine and available all-wheel-drive. That's because the American market, driven by higher fuel prices and a growing aversion to minivans, bought more than 1.7 million small crossovers and SUVs in 2011, more than double the number from 2000. Those are the latest numbers from Ford sales analyst Erich Merkle, who launched a flurry of memorized statistics during a lunch with the Exhaust Notes Boston bureau (aka just me).

Ford's plan to dominate the aging baby boomer market begins with the new 2013 Escape, a crossover that's already hit critical mass despite being pretty old (last year, a record 254,000 Escapes were sold out of more than 2 million total). Even more interesting, however, is what Ford isn't doing at all. Have a look.

MSN Autos: The current Escape, while very popular, hasn't been thoroughly redesigned since it came out as a 2001 model. Where does the new Escape fit in to Ford's future?

Erich Merkle: Vehicles like the Escape and the Edge -- the Escape in particular -- has the ability to hit really the needs that are intersecting between the Millennials and the baby boomers. That may not be occurring yet, but it's not about today. It's what's going to happen later. As we get closer to the end of this decade, when the oldest Millennials get to 35, 40 years of age, they will eventually start their own families, they'll need the extra space and room [of minivans or large SUVs] but still want the lower cost of ownership and the better fuel efficiency [of small crossovers].

Some people have said to me, "Why are you changing the Escape?" In this market, you can't rest on your laurels. Instead of the competition breaking [the current model], we'll break it and reinvent it ourselves. And that's what the new Escape is.

MSN: Talking about the trend of downsizing, do you think buyers will go back to the compact pickup market? The Ranger is going away, but it never seemed to be a slow seller. Not everyone wants a full-size F-150.

EM: That segment of the market has dropped so much. Six, seven years ago, small pickups represented 5.5 percent of the segment. Today it's a little over 2.5 percent. It's dropped to really small levels. Most people are still looking for the larger pickup truck because they have a certain need. For the most part, it's not so much the casual buyer any longer. There's really no good alternative to a full-size pickup truck.   

MSN: Small cars are getting more and more popular. But would you say there is a size limit in the U.S.?

EM: If you look at all of the activity that has happened in the subcompact car segment, you would find that subcompact cars -- when you look at both subcompact and compact cars -- about 75 percent of that market is compact and 25 percent is subcompact. So while there is some need for subcompact in this country -- it's a little over 500,000 a year in total sales -- and it does pull in a younger buyer, it's not nearly the numbers of a compact or midsize car. So while we see people moving down, it appears compact and midsize will still be the two dominant segments. [editor's note: That means sub-subcompact crossovers like the Indian-market Ford EcoSport won't be coming here]

MSN: Speaking of fuel efficiency, what about bringing over diesels? Chevy is bringing the Cruze diesel and Jeep is bringing a diesel Grand Cherokee.

EM: Clean diesel is very expensive. It's not a cheap technology. At the end of the day, the consumer has to be willing to pay for it.

MSN: But it's cheaper than a plug-in hybrid. For that, you're talking like a $6,000 or $7,000 premium, or higher, where diesels are typically $2,000 more.

EM: Correct. The approach we've been taking with EcoBoost is that we're using much of the same technology that you would use with diesel. Gasoline direct injection with higher PSI for the fuel injector, turbocharging. We're developing gasoline engines very similarly to that of the things that have been so advantageous about diesels. Which is why, when you look at the 3.5-liter V-6, it's 420 foot-pounds of torque. If you look at the EcoBoost 2.0-liter in the Escape, it's 270 foot-pounds of torque. In many ways, they perform a lot like diesels, but they're much more cost-effective.

MSN: Do you have estimated sales for the Focus Electric? Under 10,000 a year?

EM: We haven't given any. Basically, our message is "whatever the market demands."

As a company, we have to be as flexible and nimble as possible. The way we approach that is making our assembly lines so they're capable of making electric, plug-in electric, hybrid, and fuel-efficient internal combustion all on the same line. [editor's note: The Focus, Focus Electric, C-MAX Hybrid, and plug-in C-MAX Energi will all be built in the same plant starting later this year]

We've chosen to electrify the platform so there's as much commonality as possible. We make it more of a powertrain choice. So what happens is, if we find there is more demand for an electric or a hybrid, we have the flexibility to dial one up a bit and scale the other one back, or vice versa.

Edited from a longer interview.
19Comments
Apr 19, 2012 9:45AM
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exactly, with the loss of lubrication the  ASTM after many years of discussion, has set its standard at HFRR 520 much lower than EMA's recomendation of 900.

While this 60 point difference is unlikely to cause catastrophic failures, it will definitely increase wear on and shorten the life of components that are lubricated by the fuel.

also not to mention all the paraffin problems (wax drop out) cold soak,, more water and higher corrosion.

In short, the biggest problems are nobody wants to make ULSD #1, nobody has any place to store it, it is much more expensive than regular Kerosene, and last but not least, it doesn't work anywhere near as well as the old high sulfur Kerosene.

The reason for this concern is that a load of fuel with no or too little lubricity additive could potentially cause catastrophic engine failures.

Apr 19, 2012 8:31AM
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It's disapointing that Ford is taking this stance.  I was looking forwad to the possibility of Ford offering a diesel powered Focus to compete with the Chevy Cruze Diesel.  

 

Hopefully the Cruz diesel will be enough of a success that other manufactures will start to take notice and offer diesels in their mainstream compacts and maybe even midsize models. If that happens, Ford might have to change their stance.

Apr 19, 2012 8:10AM
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lets put it this way, removing diesels natural lubrication from the fuel completely nullifies any pro's that diesel engines lasts longer than gasoline, certainly old fuel pumps on agriculture tractors have failed due to the new sulferless fuels.
I have been running my vehicle on 5 ppm for six years, every day, driven it hard, in city traffic, in highway traffic, and never had a lubrication problem. 5 ppm is THREE TIMES LESS than here, where the Sulfur content is 15 ppm. Your argument is invalid.
Apr 19, 2012 7:47AM
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When considering diesel technology, sure, the economy is a very important part of it.  Durability runs a close second and is what diesel has a reputation of providing.  I am not convinced Ford's Ecoboost technology will hold up over time.  It may have some of the same efficiencies of diesel but will it be as cheap to maintain and as a durable? 

 

It's disapointing that Ford is taking this stance.  I was looking forwad to the possibility of Ford offering a diesel powered Focus to compete with the Chevy Cruze Diesel.  

Apr 19, 2012 7:01AM
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lets put it this way, removing diesels natural lubrication from the fuel completely nullifies any pro's that diesel engines lasts longer than gasoline, certainly old fuel pumps on agriculture tractors have failed due to the new sulferless fuels.
Apr 19, 2012 5:38AM
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So cleaning up a diesel's exhaust costs more money than adding a multi-thousand dollar battery pack, electric motor(s) associated mechanical interfaces and a computer to control all of it.

 

GOT IT!

 

Well, at least we get more weight and poor performance as part of the deal.

Apr 19, 2012 5:00AM
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no use entering the small diesel segment. if too many offer diesels in a already small market they will all lose money on it (unless ford develops a affordable and good one and blows away the competition).

a hybrid is fine, i don't want a plug in hybrid (a proper hybrid like the volkswagen X-1 or prius non-plug-in).

EV's pollute more than hybrids, imagine al the coal power plants we will need. the existing power plants are already overtaxed for power.

as far as the compact pickup trucks.. they are utterly worthless for me. i must be the one in five that got smart and dumped the compact and went back to the full size.

they may come back it is possible!?

Apr 19, 2012 4:35AM
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EM: Clean diesel is very expensive. It's not a cheap technology. At the end of the day, the consumer has to be willing to pay for it.
I am going to be laughing all the way to Ford competitor's dealership when their competitors run them over with clean diesel offerings, and Ford will not have anything! I love it!
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