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Are Drivers Returning to Manual Transmissions?

According to a new study, the short answer is yes. But the long answer is still no.

By Sam Smith May 2, 2012 3:28AM
Manual transmission. Image public domain via Wikipedia/Creative Commons.According to a recent USA Today story, manual transmissions are experiencing a surge in popularity. The piece cites an uptick in stick-shift "take rates," the industry term for the percentage of new-car buyers who select a given vehicle option during purchase. It implies that buyers are returning to manual gearboxes out of choice, a conscious movement back to an earlier, more primitive technology. Autoblog even went so far as to say that car buyers are "falling back in love" with manual transmissions.

It's a nice thought, and I wish it were true. But it doesn't follow what's actually happening. More bluntly: If this is anything other than a statistical blip, I'll eat my hat. 

Before we go any further, let's take a look at the numbers cited. USA Today says that:
... in the first quarter of this year, manuals were in 6.5% of new vehicles sold, and that's getting close to double each of the past five years. It's also highest since 7.2% in 2006, according to Edmunds.com.

That high "take rate," as the industry calls it, is even more impressive because just 19% of the 2,360 different models on sale offer manuals, Edmunds.com reports. Five years ago, 29% of the 2,391 available styles did — yet only 2.9% were sold with stick shifts that year, the lowest "take rate" in a decade.
The story also lists historic manual take rates, though it doesn't specify the market in question. (I'm assuming it's America.)
Edmunds.com calculated the "take rate" of manuals for Drive On. The 2012 calculation is for the first quarter of the year. The others are full-year: 

2012 - 6.5%, 2011 - 3.8%, 2010 - 3.9%, 2009 - 4.4%, 2008 - 3.7%, 2007 - 2.9%, 2006 - 7.2%, 2005 - 6.7%, 2004 - 5.5%, 2004 - 5.5%, 2003 - 8.2%, 2002 - 8.5%.

So we have one year's worth of numbers that indicate a small percentage of people have moved back toward manual transmissions. We even have a bit of context: The story compares shrinking manuals on offer (fewer cars are available with manuals now than a few years ago) and tries to convince you, via a few bullet-pointed arguments -- topics such as price, performance, driver habit -- that this is something people are doing consciously. 

Perhaps. But I doubt it. To paraphrase an old saw, there are lies, damn lies and journalist interpretations of sales figures for mass-produced automobiles. It would be stupid to pretend the 2012 number wasn't real, but it's also foolish to read too much into it. Manual-transmission sales have been falling for years, and a slight rise in that fall shouldn't be news.

Manual transmission. Image courtesy eHow.
Remember, too, the source. We're talking sales numbers here, not an opinion poll. Car-sales figures have as much to do with dealer incentives and speculatory stock*, fuel prices, the political climate and customer misinformation (most people still believe that manual transmissions offer better fuel economy, for example, even though they usually don't) as anything else. And it's not as if three percentage points of our car-buying nation suddenly did an about-face and said, "What was I thinking? This stuff is great!" There are just too many factors at work to draw broad positive conclusions.

*Remember, a large percentage of this country's automobiles aren't ordered to spec from the factory. Most are simply built by a dealer on an order sheet and then picked out by a customer. Dealership buyers and factory allocators -- i.e., market-specific brand executives -- have more say than the average customer in which options hit lots. 

It's common knowledge that the manual transmission will eventually die off; engineers have managed to make modern automatics both more efficient and more reliable than their three-pedal counterparts. Fewer vehicles are offered with a manual every year, and manufacturers almost universally say that decision is driven by customer choice; people don't buy three-pedal cars, so carmakers don't make them. Even in Europe, where manual transmissions are both more common and more loved, the numbers are shrinking. 

Most analysts believe that manuals will eventually exist only on the minority fringes -- like horseback riding or steam locomotives, they will evolve from necessity to luxury. It sucks, especially if you like shifting for yourself, but it's probably true. Don't let the numbers fool you.

Subaru Impreza shift lever. Image courtesy Subaru.
[Source: USA Today]

67Comments
May 2, 2012 7:43AM
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I prefer to keep both of my hands on the steering wheel since it is a safer way to operate a vehicle.

 

I prefer to keep one hand on the steering wheel and one hand on the stick shift since THAT is safer way to operate a vehicle.


 

A person with one hand on the steering wheel and one hand on the stick shift who is concentrating on his driving because he has to is safer then someone with both hands on the steering wheel who isn't paying attention to anything because they don't have to.

May 2, 2012 7:35AM
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I prefer to keep both of my hands on the steering wheel since it is a safer way to operate a vehicle.
  I enjoy driving a stick once in awhile but like the majority of people (excluding Europeans that apparently need a stick shift to feel smart) I don't want one, unless it is attached to a muscle car.
  I have lived in the city and owned a stick, never again, it sucked.
   With today's newer technology in transmissions, I don't believe that you have any more control over your car because you are shifting it yourself. My car has the option of shifting manually or using automatic, the only time I use the manual option is to control a downhill descent or while slowing down while towing a trailer.
  But, to each his own I suppose.

May 2, 2012 6:37AM
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I love my manual transmission. My wife thinks it's because I'm a control freak, but I think it makes me a better driver. I'm more involved in the driving process with no time to be distracted. I prefer driving my car than having it drive me.
May 2, 2012 6:35AM
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I sit in stop and go traffic every day and I still won't consider switching to an automatic.  I don't understand what the problem with stop and go traffic is.

 

I tried an automatic once.  I had it less then one year before dumping it.  Personally, I'm not to worried about where the trends are going.  Manuals may one day be gone, but it's unlikely that it will be within my lifetime.  As long as the models I am interested in are offered with a manual, I will be happy.

May 2, 2012 6:03AM
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I love my manual, but then again, I don't really commute in traffic.

Me too.  However, on one occasion I was stuck in a large traffic jam.  I inched along for two hours.  I was glad I had chosen to take my wife's automatic equiped car that day.  If I had taken my manual equiped car it would have killed my left leg.

 

Regardless of the trends, I still think knowing how to drive a manual transmission should be man law.

May 2, 2012 5:25AM
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It's common knowledge that the manual transmission will eventually die off; engineers have managed to make modern automatics both more efficient and more reliable than their three-pedal counterparts. Fewer vehicles are offered with a manual every year, and manufacturers almost universally say that decision is driven by customer choice; people don't buy three-pedal cars, so carmakers don't make them. Even in Europe, where manual transmissions are both more common and more loved, the numbers are shrinking.
Where is the documentation to support your claim? When was the last time you were in Europe, and how many automatics versus how many manuals did you see? Did you keep track, or is this purely propaganda? Is someone from the Big Three looking to push the excess automatics before the next year's model, or what?

In Europe, EVERY mainstream vehicle which sells in the United States, comes with a manual transmission STANDARD.

Take a mazda CX-7 SUV for example. That vehicle only sells as an automatic in the U.S.; in Europe, the manual transmission is STANDARD, even though it is an SUV!

Take minivans, small cars, large cars: except for traditionally automatic brands like the Bentley, they all come with a manual. Even the minivans! BMW and Mercedes, which in the U.S. sell most models like the E-class as automatic only, offer those models with manual transmissions in Europe as STANDARD.

Europeans WILL NOT drive an automatic; they consider it an insult to their intelligence and driving ability. Automatic transmissions will never gain a foothold there. Along with a big hamburger and diet coke, they are considered "something only Americans would use" (actual quote).
May 2, 2012 3:43AM
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I love my manual, but then again, I don't really commute in traffic.
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